Political Diary

New Delhi, 26 May 2026

Cockroach Bites

WHAT IS GOVT SCARED OF?

By Poonam I Kaushish

“There are already parasites who attack the system, and you want to join them. There are youngsters like cockroaches who do not get any employment…some of them become media, some become social media, some RTI and they start attacking everyone,” observed Chief Justice Gavai about unemployed youth resulting in social media going into an overdrive, exploding in controversy, creating an internet phenomenon and birth of a meme Party: Cockroach Janata Party (CJP).

For 30-year founder Abhijeet Dipke, a former AAP social worker, it started as a sardonic meme which turned into satirical movement/collective of “India’s most honest Party for the lazy, unemployed and forgotten citizens the system forgot to count,” claiming to represent young Indians disillusioned by mainstream politics. By 21 May, CJP’s Instagram account had over 16 million followers —- a staggering 1,400% increase in a single day and more than BJP-Congress followers put together.

Predictably, an unnerved Establishment still rejoicing in its recent electoral victories, withheld CJP’s X handle invoking national security following inputs from IB and blocked CJP’S Instagram page. BJP activists dubbed it political lab Gen Z project by ‘Deep State’, foreign hand, a ‘Trojan Horse has been planted from US or Pakistan-manufactured conspiracy etc.

Congress, TMC and other Opposition Parties voiced their disapproval of suppression of youth, even as they adopt a cautious approach of active listening and generational empathy. Critics averred Dipke is playing the victim card by taking down his own website, while others adopt a wait and watch approach. 

Yet, they miss the point. It is a natural instinct to poke fun at power and hold it to account in a democracy. A generation’s grammar which feels insulted by institutions, ignored by Parties and patronized by leaders who speak the language of obedience. Thereby, shrinking spaces for political engagement with all points of view, so necessary in a robust democracy.

Questionably, what is there to fear from an entity that has barely been born and seems more like a satirical attempt to mock mainstream Parties? Is it because under the veil of invincibility our aging leaders are scared of a new rival/Party on the block? One that could replace them? 

Certainly, unhappy with our political establishment, notwithstanding Modi being the most popular leader, economic distress, unemployment, fresh graduates who fail to qualify for even a peon’s naukari topped by NEET paper leak sans any accountability, CJP has struck a chord with Gen Z (1995-2007) desperately seeking new leaders who will give them new hope as Opposition has failed to tap this desperation for their political ends.

Though starting as a joke, CJP has evolved into something larger as repetition has created legitimacy, media has played it up while Opposition groups are having a field day adopting it as shorthand messaging thereby reflecting an underlying public mood, approval or anxiety.

Yet, CJP is not an organized political movement like a Party or mass agitation. It’s more of a discursive phenomenon — a narrative wave in public opinion.  Of course there is no guarantee CJP will peak quickly and fade or represent echo chambers more than the entire electorate perhaps, even serve as tools of political messaging, not grassroots structures given elections are still decided by welfare delivery, leadership perception, caste/community equations and local governance, not by meme slogans.

But it reflects how politics works in modern times: Humour, virality, narrative and perception. A symbol of political mass sentiment in a highly digital polarized democracy rather than a real-world mobilized force. For Gen Z CJP has psychological appeal as it taps into base instincts: rebellion, group identity topped by simplification of political dominance being reduced to a striking metaphor.

Surely, our powers-that-be know cockroaches are hard to exterminate, as is the instinct to poke fun at power and hold it to account in a democracy. Only last year, Nepal witnessed a Gen Z movement which unseated its Government, fuelled by disillusions and discontents over dwindling jobs, rising prices, corruption and inequalities. 

Clearly, the blocking of CJP’s account points to where the real problem lies — not in the restless young of this country, employed or unemployed, with or without dubious degrees. It lies, instead, in the too-frequent resort by the strong-armed State to quell voices of satire and humour, differences and dissent. Forgetting, democracy’s great virtue is the outlet it provides for public sentiments, frustrations and grievances.

Undoubtedly, CJP holds out important lessons which if our leaders disregard would be at their own peril. As joblessness, rising prices and all-encompassing corruption, not only create an explosive combination but lead to justifiable outrage against inequities and persons responsible for causing grief and strife to people. A lethal potent mix of economic gripes, rising unemployment and demands for political accountability. 

At the same time, it’s a wake-up call for our leaders who forget they are there thanks to the hopes of fulfilling the aam aadmi’s dreams of better lives: Naukri, Shiksha and Garima. They better take heed and act with purpose and thoughtfulness. When the ‘more equals’ play havoc with people and get away with it, that’s when “Peoples’ Power” takes birth.   

What next? India requires a commitment to transparency, tolerance and inclusiveness — political and economical. A sense of fair play needs a voice, which can be achieved only through public dialogue and honest discourse. Not symbolic gestures and inane diatribe which totals zilch. Our polity needs to listen to what Gen Z is saying, the reason why CJP captures their mood and resonates with them. Remember, satire reaches where politics has lost credibility.

For young voters raised on algorithmic impertinence, legacy is not charisma and dynastic surnames do not awe them. They question everything. Even the slim strip called official. Vijay’s rise in Tamil Nadu, a case in point. His victory was not about star power. It was about public mood, ready to punish familiarity whereby digital mobilization became an instrument against fatigue.

Undeniably, CJP’s power lies in turning humour into community, lazy into hyper-active, unemployed into conversationalist, resilience into survival instinct and the joke becomes a collective. For jobs, fair exams, affordable futures free speech, clean institutions and political entry with family surnames.

Time our leaders understand the best political systems are based on holding the finest tenets of honesty, integrity and fair-play. In the long term, when the voice of the long-suppressed budding Gen Z and eager Gen Y find utterance, will sound the death-knell of Indian polity. Time, now to uphold true democracy. Else read the writing on the wall: Shape up or shape out. ----- INFA 

                            (Copyright India News & Feature Alliance)

Economic Highlights

New Delhi, 25 May 2026

Rs Nears 100, Inflation Soars

THE ECONOMY STUMBLES!

By Shivaji Sarkar 

The rupee has breached Rs 96-a-dollar mark and is now racing towards crossing the psychological Rs 100 barrier, despite repeated efforts to steady its fall. As the dollar surges, markets grow nervous, policymakers scramble for answers, and ordinary Indians brace for rising costs. 

The weakening rupee is no longer just a currency story—it is a warning signal, exposing deeper economic vulnerabilities and raising urgent questions for both households and the government. The Indian rupee is weakening sharply under the combined pressure of foreign capital flight, rising crude oil prices, and a globally stronger US dollar. 

A falling rupee raises India’s cost of governance by inflating import bills, debt repayments, and subsidy burdens. Costlier crude and edible oil imports fuel inflation, forcing tax cuts and wider fiscal deficits, while Reserve Bank of India (RBI) interventions drain forex reserves. Export gains may help, but immediate fiscal and administrative pressures intensify. 

The rupee was already under pressure before the US-Iran war erupted, weighed down by widening external balances and foreign fund outflows. The rupee depreciated 7.04 percent, trading at Rs 96.3 a dollar levels in May as the war between Iran and the U.S. accelerated global crude oil prices, since January 2026. 

The rupee was weakening even before the war due to sustained foreign investor sell-offs, slipping by just over Re1 between January and February. But depreciation accelerated sharply—down 5.01 percent between March and May 21—as the war triggered a surge in crude oil prices. 

In May 2014, the average international crude oil price for the Indian basket hovered around $108 per barrel. During that same period in Delhi, petrol prices were approximately Rs 72.43 per litre and diesel prices around Rs 55 a litre. In May 2026, Indian crude basket is around $ 109 and petrol prices at Bengaluru -Rs107.14/L, Diesel Rs 95.04/L (Delhi- Petrol Rs 98.64/L, Diesel Rs 91.58/L). 

FDI, Private Funding & Stats

Former economic adviser Surjit Bhalla has warned that the government’s electoral dominance has pushed India into an “economic comfort zone,” breeding policy complacency. He points to stalled private investment despite higher public spending, a sharp fall in FDI—from 2.5 percent to 0.8 percent of GDP, and restrictive investment policies, including the scrapping of investment treaties. Bhalla also challenges claims that India is the world’s fastest-growing major economy, noting that in per capita dollar GDP growth, countries like Bangladesh and Ethiopia are ahead.His central warning: political dominance may be reducing the urgency for difficult but necessary economic reforms. 

India’s retail inflation (CPI) has “generally followed a moderating trajectory from 2023 through mid-2026”, though recent global energy constraints have caused upticks. Possibly stats don’t capture all as the government transitioned to a new CPI series (base year 2024=100) to reflect modern consumption habits, that shows inflation within the RBI tolerance band.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi warned that ongoing global wars, the pandemic, and an energy crisis have created a “decade of disasters”. Speaking to the Indian diaspora at The Hague in the Netherlands, he cautioned that if left unchecked, these challenges could reverse decades of progress and push massive global populations back into poverty. 

A falling rupee weakens Indian purchasing power by making imports—like crude oil, electronics, pharmaceutical raw materials, fertilisers, construction goods like paints and machinery, transport and food—significantly more expensive. This translates into higher domestic inflation, increased costs for foreign education and travel, and pressure on household budgets, though it slightly benefits export sectors like IT and pharmaceuticals. 

India remains vulnerable because it depends heavily on imports, foreign investment, and a global financial system centred on the dollar. Every time the rupee falls sharply, it exposes that dependence. Its core sectors and manufacturing are not vibrant as individual purchasing power sinks. 

The challenge, therefore, is not simply to defend the rupee in moments of stress. It is to build resilience—by reducing imports, strengthening exports, expanding domestic manufacturing, and deepening confidence in India’s own economic foundations. The BRICS effort thaws. 

Four factors are driving the rupee slide. First, foreign investors are pulling money out. As global funds exit Indian equities and bonds, they sell rupees and buy dollars, increasing demand for the US currency and pushing the rupee lower. It has led to almost over a year-long busting of the stock market. 

Second, India’s rising oil bill is intensifying pressure. Since India imports over 80 percent of its crude oil and pays in dollars, higher global oil prices mean India needs far more dollars to meet its energy needs, widening the trade deficit. 

Alt Energy Myth

And those advocating for alternative energy dependent toy-tech batteries fail to appreciate that electricity storage technique is again imported, far less efficient and lets dollar rise further. In comparative terms batteries increase foreign exchange outgo, dump yards flood with toxic materials and the problems compound. The replacement costs of battery are higher as many government departments which purchased battery cars realise. In four years, batteries deplete critically leading to faster junking of vehicles, while an ICE vehicle could be functional for about 40 years.   

Third, the US dollar itself has strengthened. Higher American interest rates, rising treasury yields, and global uncertainty have made the dollar a preferred safe haven.Finally, policy choices matter. The RBI has at times allowed the rupee to soften rather than aggressively defend it, hoping to preserve export competitiveness and support growth amid economic stress. 

RBI Loss?

The RBI says it incurred no losses from currency operations in 2024–25, reporting Rs 1.11 lakh crore in forex gains and Rs 97,007 crore in interest income from foreign securities. These earnings helped fund a record Rs 2.69 lakh crore surplus transfer to the government.Even after selling around $43 billion to defend the rupee, the RBI says its forex interventions boosted both its balance sheet and government finances—though how much of this reflects real gains remains open to debate.

The rupee’s fall is not just a market fluctuation; it exposes India’s structural dependence on dollar-dominated imports. A weaker rupee raises import costs, fuels inflation, squeezes businesses, and makes overseas education and travel costlier.The real challenge is not merely to defend the rupee, but to reduce vulnerability—through deeper domestic resilience.Until that change, every rise in the dollar will continue to reverberate across India’s economy.---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

Spotlight

New Delhi, 23 May 2026

Hormuz Crisis

BIG TEST FOR CHINA

By Maciej Gaca

(Expert, Centre For Intl relations, Poland) 

The crisis triggered by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is rapidly shifting from the military sphere to one dominated by pricing pressures, insurance costs, ship availability, delivery schedules, energy contracts, and the ability of industries to sustain production. For the People's Republic of China, the blockade represents a major test of its vast industrial and energy system, carefully built in recent years to withstand external shocks. It has invested heavily in strategic reserves, coal production, domestic mining, imports from Russia and Central Asia, electrification of transport, renewable energy, nuclear power, expansion of the national grid, and strong state control over key enterprises. 

Beijing is approaching the Hormuz crisis from the perspective of a country that has learned over the years that energy is a component of national security. The Chinese authorities do not treat oil, gas, and electricity solely as market categories. They are elements of social stability, industrial competitiveness, mobilisation capacity, and political autonomy from the West. Therefore, China's energy transformation has two parallel meanings: a climate-industrial one and a strategic one. 

Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) describes it as a process of “shock-proofing,” or securing the system against external instability. According to this analysis, China achieved approximately 85% energy self-sufficiency by 2024, and its investments in green technologies, electrification, diversification of fossil fuel imports, and expansion of coal-fired capacity increased the country's resilience to the shocks caused by the war with Iran and the closure of Hormuz. 

Administrative data from Beijing demonstrates why this system is more difficult to disrupt than the economies of smaller Asian importers. China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported that in 2024, industrial enterprises above a certain size extracted 4.76 billion tonnes of coal, while importing 540 million tonnes. In the same year, domestic oil production reached 212.82 million tonnes, oil imports 553.42 million tonnes, gas production 246.4 billion cubic meters, and gas imports 131.69 million tonnes. Electricity production reached 9.4181 trillion kWh. These figures do not eliminate import dependence, but they do illustrate the scale of China’s own energy and industrial base. 

When it comes to oil, China remains strongly linked to the Middle East. The Columbia Center on Global Energy Policy, based on Chinese customs and industry data, estimates that in 2025, about half of China’s oil imports and almost a third of its LNG imports would come from the Middle East. Official customs data indicate that 42% of China's oil imports came from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Oman, Kuwait, and Qatar. Additionally, oil imports from Iran must be taken into account. Since 2022, these imports have not been included in official Chinese statistics, but according to tanker tracking data (Kpler), they reached approximately 1.38 million barrels per day in 2025 and were often declared as Malaysian or Indonesian oil. 

China’s resilience to an oil shock has several layers. The first is its inventories. The CGEP reports that at the beginning of March, China had approximately 1.39 billion barrels of crude oil in storage, equivalent to approximately 120 days of net imports at 2025 levels. The second layer consists of Iranian barrels held in floating storage facilities in Asia and bonded warehouses in China. The third layer consists of Russian supplies and alternative import sources. The fourth is the state's administrative capacity to manage refineries, fuel exports, margins, and raw material allocation. 

Liquefied natural gas is China’s weaker point. Oil has greater market liquidity, broader reserves, and greater potential for short-term substitution. LNG requires specific infrastructure, contracts, terminals, ships, and regasification. In the event of a disruption in LNG supplies from Qatar and UAE, Beijing has a limited range of actions: it can limit demand or pay more for alternative cargoes. The first option seems closer to China's crisis management approach, especially given weak domestic demand and the reluctance of state-owned companies to accept extremely high spot prices. 

This point requires further attention in the industry analysis. The crisis in Hormuz isn’t affecting China solely through energy imports for households. It’s most severely impacting refineries, petrochemicals, fertilizers, maritime transport, chemical industry, plastics production, and sectors dependent on stable energy prices. 

China’s advantage lies in the existence of systemic buffers: coal, domestic electricity, massive renewable energy capacity, battery production, transport electrification, and the ability to shift costs between state-owned enterprises, the budget, and consumers. The weakness lies in the fact that an economy as large as China’s cannot simply “escape” oil. Even the most aggressive electrification doesn’t replace petrochemicals, aviation, heavy transport, fertilizers, and parts of industrial processes. 

It’s worth understanding China's energy policy as a policy of excess. Beijing isn’t choosing a single source of security. It's simultaneously building coal, renewable energy, nuclear power, gas pipelines, LNG, oil reserves, transport electrification, and its own energy storage technologies. From the perspective of the European climate debate, this appears inconsistent. From the perspective of a country preparing for a world of sanctions, blockades, and maritime crises, it's coherent enough. China wants to be able to shift from one buffer to another, even at the cost of higher emissions and inefficiency. 

Beijing's Diplomacy

China's official response was predictable. Beijing portrayed the crisis as a result of military escalation and called for the restoration of peace and the protection of civilian shipping. The Sino-Pakistani Five-Point Initiative dedicated a separate section to the Strait of Hormuz: China and Pakistan called for the protection of crews and ships, the safe passage of civilian and commercial vessels, and the rapid restoration of normal navigation. 

This language serves several purposes. First, Beijing wants to portray itself as a defender of trade and energy stability. Second, it wants to avoid the impression that it benefits from Western-provided security without taking responsibility for it. Third, it attempts to speak on behalf of importers from Asia and the Global South, for whom rising energy prices are a real fiscal and social problem. Fourth, it maintains its distance from any naval operation that might appear to be a US-led coalition. 

This is a weak point in China’s position. China requires free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, Malacca, the Arabian Sea, and Indian Ocean, but its ability to independently stabilise these routes is limited politically and operationally. The Chinese navy is expanding its reach, with a base in Djibouti, anti-piracy expertise, and a growing ocean presence, but Beijing is reluctant to assume the role of guarantor of maritime order in the Persian Gulf. Such a role would require decisions that would be inconsistent with China's image of a nation that avoids foreign wars. 

Chinese Political Advantage

Beijing may attempt to exploit the Strait of Hormuz for propaganda purposes. Its message is predictable: a US-led security order breeds war and chaos; China offers stability, trade, and infrastructure.This message will appeal to audiences who already view Western security architecture with distrust. 

For Beijing, Hormuz is a vindication of its policy of building surplus: reserves, alternative supplies, domestic mining, coal, renewable energy, nuclear power, electrification, and state control over strategic sectors. This model is costly and inefficient from a pure economic perspective, but in a crisis, it buys China time. And in such a scenario, time is as valuable a resource as oil.---INFA 

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

Round The World

New Delhi, 22 May 2026

Modi’s Five-Nation Tour

OUTCOME VS EXPECTATIONS

By Dr. D.K. Giri

(Prof. International Relations, JIMMC) 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi just concluded the five-nation tour (15-20 May) with quite a few goodies in his bag as well as at least one monkey on his back. In this column last week, I had mapped the possibilities before the tour. Today, we will assess the outcomes. Notably, the optic in Norway should define the outcomes domestically. 

Prime Minister Modi certainly embarked on crisis diplomacy wearing an aviator’s jacket. He covered five countries with 24.5 hours of flying securing four new strategic partnerships. The context was the threat in Strait of Hormuz, oil at $120 and Rupee at a record low. The overriding tour objective was the quest for energy and technology. In current geo-politics, these two imperatives define the national security of any country. 

Analysing country-by-country, what actually landed on the trip are the following. In UAE, on 15 May, Modi secured Energy Insurance Policy. He ensured the strategic petroleum reserves which was long overdue. In addition, LPG supply pacts were signed; plans for 8-exaflop supercomputing facility in India were formulated; a ship repair cluster at Vadinar in Gujarat was established. Master Application for International Trade and Regulatory Interface (MAITRI) corridor was operationalised. UAE announced 5b USD fresh investment in India’s financial and infrastructure sectors. Abu Dhabi has taken an independent and strong stand on Iran. As the relations between India and UAE are deepening in a few hours’ stopover, Modi firmed up the alliance with UAE. 

The Netherlands was the next stop of Prime Minister where semi-conductors, green hydrogen and defence deals were expected. Modi bagged chips, water and Chola copper. Talks were conducted on semi-conductors, AI, maritime security and clean energy. A historic development was the return of Chola copper plates. Netherlands agreed to hand back Anaimangalam Chola copper plates, 21 plates, the Chola dynasty legacy. We could say from ASML to Anaimangalam – a single visit secured India’s tech future and its civilisational past. 

The partnership with Sweden was enhanced. It was elevated to strategic partnership with a joint action plan 2026-2030. India-Sweden Joint Innovation Partnership 2.0 was launched. Also, India-Sweden Technology and Artificial Intelligence Corridor (SITAC) was endorsed. The trade was agreed to be doubled in five years. On top it, Prime Minister Modi was conferred with Royal Order of the Polar Star, and Degree Commander Grand Cross. In fact, Stockholm is where ‘Make in India’ meets ‘invent in Sweden’. India-Sweden relations go back a long way in multiple sectors – academia (remember, Gunar and Alva Myrdal), civil society-defence, development and politics. Olof Palme the former Swedish Prime Minister remains popular in the memory of Indians. A road in Delhi is named after him.  

The visit to Norway was historic since it was the first Indian Prime Minister to visit Oslo in 43 years. The relations were elevated to “Green Strategic Partnership”. In all, 12 agreements were signed consisting of sectors like climate, maritime, tech, space, digital infra. Modi attended the third India-Nordic Summit in Oslo. All five Nordic countries – Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Norway and Iceland – participated in the summit titled ‘Green Technology and Innovation Strategic Partnership’. After the summit, the Nordics made a commitment of investment of 100b USD plus creation of 1 million jobs under India-EFTA Trade and Economic Partnership Agreement.                                                                                                                            The last stop was Italy between May 19-20. Modi met with his counterpart Prime Minister Georgia Meloni and the President Sergio Mattarella. The relationship was elevated to a Special Strategic Partnership. It was agreed that there would be Annual Heads of Govt Summits. The bilateral trade was targeted at 20b Euro by 2029; currently the volume of trade stands at 16.77b USD and FDI at 3.66b USD. More important, Rome becomes the front door of IMEC and Modi seems to have got the keys.

 A particular incident in Norway became the domestic peg. Hence, it should be addressed. After joint statements with Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store, Modi, as his wont, left without addressing the press. Helle Lyng, a journalist from Dagavisen almost yelled, “Why don’t you take some questions from the freest press in the world?” She was in one sense right. Norway ranks number 1 in Press Freedom Index whereas India is 157.

The Norwegian Prime Minister stayed back and took questions from the press. Modi did not address press in India and sought to avoid them abroad. For a leader of the largest democracy, it certainly looked odd. Modi told Nordics we share rule of law values. The question was on human rights and persecution of minorities. So, the rule of law certainly includes answering the press, the fourth estate. One cannot lecture on rule-based order and dodge the rules of engagement.

Taking a Realist approach, diplomacy is not played out in press conferences. Modi focused on substance over spectacle securing four strategic partnerships in six days and rapid increase in bilateral trade. He stuck to the same format in UAE, Netherlands, Sweden and Italy. This would be a fair defence of Modi’s style put up by the government. Sibi George, the Secretary, Ministry of External Affairs (West) formidably laid out India’s position in his press conference. He asserted that India is a civilisational country of 5,000 years with citizens’ rights enshrined in a written Constitution. To a question on trust, he elaborated the services provided by Government of India to about 120 countries during Covid, supplying relief and vaccinations etc. He also pointed out the joint statement issued by G-20 Summit in India in 2023 which was a rare achievement. Such leadership and altruism wins confidence of other countries.

On balance, the optics in Norway did not leave a good taste in the mouth. Prime Minister appeared to be running away from the journalists. If Modi does not answer a foreign journalist, he hands out a video clip to his critics and the Opposition. The Chola plates came home but did the democratic optics land well. The Helle Lyng moment will linger for a while. Whatever may have been her motivation, to embarrass Modi or seek clarity on a question, Modi with his usual charm and wit could have disarmed her. That was not to be.

In 2014, Modi promised ‘minimum government, maximum governance’. In 2026, India and the world are asking for ‘minimum speeches, maximum answers’. Modi secured the fuel in Abu Dhabi, but in Oslo, we saw the price of silence. The five-nation tour gave us strategy, but the one question (not answered) gave us the story. Could the Prime Minister Modi do otherwise? ---INFA

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)