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Economic Highlights
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US-Iran & Persian Gulf Crisis: BIG TEST FOR FOREIGN POLICY, ECONOMY, Dr. Tomasz Łukaszuk, 6 June 2 |
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Spotlight
New Delhi, 6 June 2026
US-Iran
& Persian Gulf Crisis
BIG TEST
FOR FOREIGN POLICY, ECONOMY
Dr. Tomasz
Łukaszuk
(Expert,
Centre for Intl Relations, Poland)
The Persian Gulf
conflict represents one of the most significant tests for Indian foreign policy
in the 21st century. The war highlighted the limitations of India’s influence
on US actions in the Indian Ocean, as well as the boundaries of the strategic autonomy
India has been cultivating over the past decade. Economically, the conflict
compelled India to adjust its supply chains regarding energy security and to
reassess Gulf markets for Indian goods, services, and labour exports.
It has also
underscored the need to accelerate the development of domestic energy
capabilities and to diversify gas sources for fertilizer production.
Implementation of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC)—a
hybrid transport and economic corridor utilizing Red Sea ports, a railway line
across Saudi Arabia, and Israeli ports on the Mediterranean—is expected to
accelerate.
Since 2014—the start
of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s tenure—India has pursued a multi-vector
foreign policy. India itself terms this “strategic autonomy,” a concept that
draws elements from the tradition of non-alignment, while experts in the US and
Europe often describe it as a “pendulum” policy. India simultaneously
cultivates relations with Israel, Iran, and the Persian Gulf states. Indian diplomacy
is driven primarily by economic considerations, as all these nations play a
crucial role in the country's trade and investment landscape.
Israel is a key
trading partner—with a trade volume exceeding $6 billion and investments
surpassing $300 million—and a source of advanced technologies in agriculture,
irrigation, water desalination, the defence industry, and medicine.
Iran has been a
traditional, vital source of oil and gas—though constrained by US sanctions—as
well as a market for Indian rice. Furthermore, India has invested in the
Chabahar port near the Strait of Hormuz; this facility is intended to serve as
a counterweight to the Chinese-Pakistan port of Gwadar, the southern terminus
of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
From India’s perspective,
Iran also plays a significant role in monitoring and balancing Pakistan’s
influence in Afghanistan. Persian Gulf states account for 50% of India’s oil
demand and 40% of its liquefied gas needs, as well as 15% of its exports and
20% of its imports. The Indian diaspora in the region—numbering nearly nine
million—is the largest in the world, generating 50 billion US dollars in
additional annual revenue. Indian citizens make up 35% of the population in the
United Arab Emirates.
The war that began in
February poses a challenge for India and its balancing act in foreign policy.
Initial reactions from Prime Minister Modi and Foreign Minister Jaishankar were
measured, expressing concern and calling for dialogue and the protection of
civilians. India sought to maintain neutrality while indirectly supporting the
US and Israel and condemning Iran for attacks on the Gulf states. In this
context, Modi’s visit to Israel two days before the war began served as a
significant signal.
The sinking of an
Iranian ship off the coast of Sri Lanka—which had been sailing from
Visakhapatnam, India’s largest naval base in the Bay of Bengal, following the
joint MILAN exercises—sparked concern in Delhi. It highlighted the limits of
the status India had gained, with the US assistance, as a security guarantor in
the eastern Indian Ocean. Despite the belief in India’s broad strategic
autonomy, these limits are still defined by the administration of President
Donald Trump. To counterbalance the negative impact on its image, Indian authorities
agreed to provide shelter to Iranian ships at the naval base in Kochi, on
India’s west coast.
A significant aspect
of the US-Iran conflict and the war in the Persian Gulf, from India’s
perspective, was the US acceptance of Pakistan’s proposal to act as a mediator
in peace negotiations with Iran. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar criticised
Pakistan for effectively acting as a “broker” rather than a “mediator,” emphasising
that India would not agree to play such a role. At the same time, he stressed
the need for a swift end to the conflict in the Persian Gulf. India’s reaction
reflects its ongoing rivalry with Pakistan for influence in the Gulf and for
the quality of its relationship with the US.
The lack of extensive
comment from the government in Delhi on this matter was viewed in India as an
indication of compliance with Trump’s request to Modi to grant the US greater
freedom of action in India’s immediate neighbourhood than previously allowed.
The top priorities for Indian diplomats remain stabilising supply chains and
ensuring the safety of the Indian diaspora. A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz
is a critical factor regarding supply chains, given that 2 million barrels of
oil per day passed through the Strait prior to the war. Indian diplomacy
successfully secured permission for over a dozen ships to transit through
Iranian territorial waters.
The Indian government
also obtained authorisation to import oil from Russia. This enabled the
replenishment of strategic oil reserves, which are estimated at 25 million
barrels. The blocking of imports of gas and other fertilizer production inputs
has forced India to switch suppliers and reroute vessels along paths connecting
India to Morocco and Jordan via the Cape of Good Hope, as well as to Indonesia
and Malaysia via the Bay of Bengal. Domestic producers in India are operating
at 60% capacity due to LNG supply shortages.
Approximately one
million citizens have already returned to India through individual or group
repatriation efforts. Authorities in Delhi recognise the impossibility of
providing them with jobs given the protracted war, a situation that could
escalate into a social crisis. Returnees fear losing their assets, jobs, and
social benefits in the Gulf countries, where more than half of them were
employed in the construction sector. Another issue concerns 14 Indian merchant
vessels still located in waters adjacent to the Strait of Hormuz and the
associated need for humanitarian assistance. Initially, 37 ships were blocked,
but thanks to the efforts of Indian diplomats, clearance was secured for 23 of
them to proceed.
With Iran and the US forces continuing to exchange
strikes despite a temporary ceasefire signed, and both sides offering
different versions on talks’ progress, India shall need to gear up for further
economic vulnerabilities and perhaps consider tweaking its foreign policy. ---INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature
Alliance)
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ECONOMIC ISSUES TO THE FORE, By Inder Jit, 5 June 2026 |
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REWIND
New
Delhi, 5 June 2026
ECONOMIC ISSUES TO
THE FORE
By Inder Jit
(Released on 14
December 1976)
Economic
issues with particular reference to the problem of prices and production are
receiving New Delhi's top priority, notwithstanding the excitement caused by
developments in Orissa and West Bengal and the visits of the Hungarian
President and other VIP friends from abroad. At Gauhati, the AICC spotlighted
the renewed demand for a national wage and prices policy. Mrs Gandhi also
addressed a massive workers rally organised by the Assam unit of the INTUC at
Jawahar Nagar and gave an inkling of her mind on certain important issues
agitating the working class. Following return to New Delhi, the Prime Minister
received an INTUC deputation, led by its President, Mr B. Bhagavati, and
discussed with it the general labour situation, especially the need for
improvement in the system for payment of bonus. Meanwhile, the Finance
Minister, Mr C. Subramaniam, has initiated meetings with the labour leaders,
top economists and leading industrialists to hear their views on the general
economic situation.
The
situation on the price front has been causing concern. This was reflected in
Mrs Gandhi's own speeches at Jawahar Nagar. She said that the prices of certain
commodities had risen when there was no reason at all for this to happen. She
then did some "loud thinking" and added that perhaps the answer lay
in deliberate public control on prices and incomes. Mrs Gandhi's remark was not
off the cuff. She has, in fact, been keen for some time now to forge a national
policy on wages, incomes and prices. But as she and Mr Jagjiwan Ram pointed out
at Jawahar Nagar, the subject bristles with any number of difficulties in a
country as large and varied as India. The employees of the nationalised banks,
the Life Insurance Corporation and the two airlines, IA and AI, for instance,
draw high salaries in the national context. Under a national wage policy,
either their wages would have to be brought down or those of the others raised.
The first alternative would pose many practical problems. But the second is
clearly not possible at present. India is in no position to foot the additional
wage bill.
INTUC
and its leaders, who were warmly complimented by Mrs Gandhi at Jawahar Nagar
for "serving the interest of the workers and standing behind the Congress
even in the most difficult times", appreciate the many constraints faced
by the Government in coming forward with a national wage policy. They also
concede the need to ensure that any policy in regard to limitation on incomes
does not in any way hit what is described as the "principal source for
capital formation at present in India, namely, the contribution of the
individual investor. They are, therefore, willing to wait until such time as
the Government is able to evolve a formula which does not affect the
all-important individual saving and ensures a minimum rate of growth. However,
these leaders are pressing the Government for a fair deal on at least one
count: payment of bonus.
A
review of the bonus formula is sought on the ground of the workers’ “magnificent
response to the call of Emergency and acknowledgement by the Prime Minister at
Gauhati of the good work done by them. ("We have congratulated the workers
on their cooperation during the emergency in terms of improved production,
especially in the public sector," she said and then significantly added:
They rightfully ask what the management is doing in exchange and, frankly, I
have not been able to answer that.") The number of man days lost due to
strikes has been reduced almost to nil and production has gone up all round, availability
of consumer goods has increased. But INTUC and other leaders are bugged by one
fear: increasing productivity is not matched by a required increase in the
purchasing power of the people. This, it is argued, is all the more so in a
situation in which wages have remained, more or less, the same.
Specifically,
the INTUC, as urged by the President of its Assam unit, Mr K.P. Tripathi,
former MP and Assam Minister, feels that the payment of bonus should not be
linked to "allocable surplus". It is argued that under the existing
system a company has "allocable surplus" for distribution as bonus
"only when it makes a profit of 30 to 40 per cont". Under the present
formula, four charges are first made on profits before allocable surplus is
determined. The charges are: a guaranteed return of 8.5 per cent on equity
capital, a provision of 6 per cent for the reserve fund, payment of income-tax
and, finally, provision for past losses. It is pointed out that in the case of
tea plantations, for instance, no allocable surplus is available even where
profits have totalled Rs 2 crores or more. Allocable surplus is available only
where profits are more than 35 per cent. Not unoften, there is insufficient
"allocable surplus" even to pay the minimum statutory requirement of
four per cent, causing not a little hardship to the workers,
Happily,
there is no adamant insistence that bonus should be linked to profit and profit
alone. INTUC leaders would be equally pleased if bonus is linked to production
or productivity instead of to profit-sharing. Indeed, INTUC and its affiliates
are increasingly seeking a link with productivity. But, as Mr Bhagavati told
the Prime Minister, the response from the managements has been far from positive.
In some cases, even such managements as had agreed in the past to link bonus to
production had dragged their foot, taking shelter under the formula of prior
changes and the law. This law as it stands today provides for the payment of
bonus on the basis of productivity only if a management agrees. The INTUC
would, therefore, like the Government to provide for a tripartite agreement
(the Government being the third party) or to lay down that whenever workmen
demand payment of bonus on productivity, it should be made obligatory on the
part of the employers to accept the basis and negotiate in good faith.
Two
other interesting points have been advocated in this context for New Delhi's
consideration. First, it is stated that in multi-unit companies bonus is not
being given to workmen even in units which have earned substantial profits on
the ground that the overall company's balance sheet and profit and loss account
do not permit payment of any bonus, at present, whether the bonus is to be
unit-wise or industry-wise is left to the employer. This, according to the case
argued before the authorities, should be changed and the choice left to the
workers. Second, INTUC leaders have conveyed their gratitude to the Prime
Minister for amending the Constitution to include in the Directive Principles
of State Policy the worker's right to participate in the management of Industries.
But they have also argued that if the workers are to participate in management
intelligently and effectively they should be enabled access to all financial
and other economic information pertaining to the undertaking.
Mrs
Gandhi and her colleagues are, no doubt, anxious to ensure a fair deal to the
workers. At Jawahar Nagar, she not only voiced her concern over the welfare of
workers but went one step further to cast a specific responsibility on
Government-appointed Directors in companies. She said it was their duty to
protect the workers interest in those companies, besides ensuring that these
companies carried out Government policies and programmes. Referring to the
demand for the repeal of the "iniquitous" allocable surplus formula
for bonus, she also significantly remarked: "One thing which has to be
done is to ensure proper accounting by companies”. At the same time, however,
there is no question of the Government allowing itself to be stampeded into
doing anything against its better judgment. First, Mrs Gandhi candidly told the
workers' rally in Gauhati that they must "bear in mind that they will not
benefit from more increase in bonus and wages if prices go up and the value of
rupee falls." More important, she declared that while the Government was
committed to the workers welfare it had to see that the country's
"economic boat" did not sink.---INFA.
(Copyright, India News
and Feature Alliance)
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India & The World: THE MYANMAR TEST, By Dr. D.K. Giri, 4 June 2026 |
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Round
The World
New
Delhi, 4 June 2026
India & The World
THE MYANMAR TEST
By Dr. D.K. Giri
(Prof. International
Relations, JIMMC)
Why
Min Aung Hlaing, President of Myanmar chose Delhi as his first visit and what
India must do next? Admittedly, in diplomacy, the first visit of a Head of
State matters. It tells you who a leader trusts, fears or needs. At the same
time, it can also be a confidence trick.
On
Monday last, Myanmar’s President landed in New Delhi. As said, it was his
maiden visit since assuming office in April this year. He did not choose
Beijing, nor Bangkok but Delhi. Why? And what should New Delhi do with this
trust?
I
pondered over this question since his visit. Because Myanmar is just not
another neighbour. It shares 1,643 km long borders with India and presents a
test of India’s foreign policy; a test of geography, history, democracy and
something I call ‘strategic maturity’ – the courage to act in our national
interest without losing our national character. Let me explain. Why Delhi was
his first port of call?
There
could be three possible reasons, all practical. First, security: Myanmar’s
territory touches our troubled North-East – Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and
Arunachal Pradesh. Insurgent groups have
camps across the border: arms flow, so do drugs and refugees. President Hlaing knows
this. So, he came with a promise: “We will not allow Myanmar’s soil to be used
against India’s security interest”. The statement was delivered in Hyderabad
House, and it matters.
India
has been Myanmar’s quiet partner on counter-insurgency for 20 years: Operation
Sunrise, intelligence sharing, and border fencing. No other country gives
Myanmar that kind of help. China gives roads and loans, whereas India gives
joint patrols. In a region where guns speak louder than talks, that counts.
The
second reason could be connectivity. Two Indian projects are stuck in Myanmar
for a decade. The Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project – to link
Kolkata with Mizoram via Sittwe Port, and the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral
Highway – our gateway to ASEAN. Both are 80 per cent done. Both need Myanmar’s
political push to finish. Hlaing’s visit was also a signal, “we will unlock
them”. For India, this is not charity. This is our Act East Policy on
Wheels. Without Myanmar, we cannot reach South-East Asia by land.
Third:
balance: China has entered the Myanmar theatre in a big way. Twenty-one billion
USD is invested in projects under the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor. Kyaukpyu
Deep-Sea Port is also financed by China. Beijing is supporting oil and gas
pipelines to Yunnan, as well as in arm sales, political cover at the UN.
Myanmar
knows dependence is dangerous. So, every Myanmar leader, even from the
military, keeps one window open to India. It is a balance. Hlaing’s Delhi visit
tells Beijing, “We have options”; and it tells Washington, “Do not lecture us”.
So, he came, not for love, but for leverage. Every country, for the sake of
independent foreign policy, seeks to balance rival powers. India does it in the
name of multi-alignment. So could Myanmar.
Let
us recall the weight of history of India-Myanmar relations. India and Myanmar
are no strangers. We share Buddhism, tea, and Tagore. General Aung San, father
of Aung San Suu Kyi, studied at Shanti Niketan. U Thant, the Burmese UN
Secretary-General, was a friend of Nehru. In 1948, India was the first to recognise
Myanmar’s independence. In the 1950s, we were both leaders of the Non-Aligned
Movement. Our peoples crossed the border for weddings, funerals, and festivals.
This
history gives India something China cannot buy -- trust at the village level.
When a bridge is built by India, people say “Delhi helped”. When it is built by
China, they ask “how much is the debt?” But history is not policy. Sentiment
will not stop a Chinese submarine in Kyaukpyu. For that, we need strategy.
So,
let us deal with the China factor. Let us be clear. India cannot remove China
from Myanmar. The border is 2,200 km long. The trade is 12b USD. The pipelines
are already pumping. So, our aim is not to compete Rupee for Yuan. Our aim
should be to ensure Myanmar does not become a Chinese colony that threatens us.
How do we secure this aim?
Three
possible moves may be proffered. First, finish what we started. Speed is
strategy. Every month Kaladan is delayed, Sittwe Port looks more Chinese. India
must put money, men, and monitors on the ground. Create a special PMO Cell for
Myanmar’s projects. Review weekly. If we deliver roads, power, and ports,
Myanmar’s army will have a reason to call Delhi.
Second,
play to our strengths. As China builds hard infrastructure, India can build
soft infrastructure – IT, pharma, education, democracy training. Give 1000
scholarships to Myanmar’s students. Train their civil servants, especially in
E-Governance. A Myanmar officer who studied in one of IIMs is less likely to
sign a secret deal with Beijing.
Third,
talk to all, tilt to India. We must engage the junta on security and
connectivity. But we must also keep the communications lines open with a democratic
forces, civil society, and ethnic groups, quietly, not with a megaphone. The US
can preach. India must practice sampark with all, samarthan for India
(relate to all, secure support for India). This is diplomacy in action – we
deal with the government of the day, but we never burn bridges with the people
of tomorrow.
It
is true that New Delhi faces the democracy dilemma in Myanmar which puts
principles versus national interest. The question is, should India support
democracy revival in Myanmar, even if it costs us? Many in the West say yes.
They want India to sanction the junta, like America does. They quote our
democratic values. But, let it be said, values without geography are a
lecture. Values with geography is a policy.
Here
is the ground reality. If India backs off, China fills the vacuum in 24 hours --
more arms, more ports, more surveillance on our North-East. The refugee flow
into Mizoram and Manipur will double. Insurgents will get new sponsors. And the
people of Myanmar still will not get democracy – they will just get a Chinese
one.
So,
Myanmar tests India’s statecraft. Every neighbour of India poses a different
challenge. Pakistan tests our patience; China tests our power; and Myanmar
tests our balance. Can we secure our borders without becoming a bully? Can we
compete with China without copying China? Can we stand for democracy without
sacrificing our security interests?
Myanmar’s
President’s visit gave us a chance to answer these questions. They are: India
will work with whoever governs Myanmar, to secure our North-East, complete our
connectivity, and prevent the Indian Ocean from becoming a Chinese lake. This
is our Neighbourhood First. That is Act East. For India, Myanmar is not a
problem to solve. It is a relationship to manage. We do so with history in our
heart, geography in our mind and strategy in our hand. ---INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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NEET Exam Leak & After: GOVT NEEDS TO BUILD TRUST, By Dhurjati Mukherjee, 3 June 2026 |
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Open
Forum
New
Delhi, 3 June 2026
NEET Exam Leak &
After
GOVT NEEDS TO BUILD
TRUST
By Dhurjati Mukherjee
The lack of good governance in the country is
widely acknowledged. Effective and stringent oversight of public institutions
could significantly enhance efficiency and substantially reduce corruption. The
recent leak of the National Eligibility-cum-Entrance Test (NEET) examination is
yet another example of administrative lapses and inadequate accountability in
the management of crucial public processes. In the wake of the controversy,
Union Human Resource Development Minister Dharmendra Pradhan has acknowledged
responsibility for the incident, highlighting the seriousness of the issue and
the need for systemic reforms to restore public confidence.
At the outset it needs to be emphasised that
given the National Testing Agency’s (NTA’s) record in conducting 24 exams by
2024, a parliamentary standing committee in its review of high education bodies
in December 2026 laid emphasis on pen-and-paper testing for NEET given that “NTA’s
recent performance has not inspired confidence”.
In fact, the Supreme Court has refused to
direct the NTA to conduct re-test of NEET-UG 2026, scheduled on June 21,
through a Computer-Based Test (CBT) mode instead of the existing pen-and-paper
format.Expressing disinclination to grant the relief, the two-judge bench
posted the matter to July, effectively denying the relief for the NEET re-test.
The decision to make the NEET computer-based
test (CBT) does not necessarily imply an online exam equals a safe exam, as per
experts, due to the advent of digital fraud. Prof. Suman Chakraborty, Director,
IIT-Kharagpur, observed the need for a paradigm shift including “encrypted item
banks, last mile question activation, multiple equivalent question sets,
AI-enabled anomaly detection, biometric identity verification, jammer-enable
centres, and deep-tech surveillance”. Some have suggested conducting NEET
twice a year to make it in time for the exam.
The recent leak of question paper is nothing
new as there have been such leaks in 2024 and 2027. In 2019, several candidates
used proxies to appear in the NEET after which biometric checks were tightened.
However, earlier the leaks were considered localised and did not trigger
cancellation of the exam. Having to spend Rs 10-20 lakhs, the question paper
could seem like a worthwhile one-time investment if it boosts chances of
securing admission to a government college or even a cheaper private college.
Clearly, the Public Examinations (Prevention
of Unfair Means) Act, 2024, enacted to curb question paper leaks and organised
malpractices in major recruitment and entrance examinations such as UPSC, SSC,
NEET and JEE, has so far failed to serve as an effective deterrent. This is
despite the stringent provisions of the law, which prescribe penalties ranging
from three to ten years of imprisonment and fines between Rs 10 lakh and Rs 1
crore, depending on the gravity of the offence. The persistence of such
scandals suggests that the enormous financial incentives behind these crimes
continue to outweigh the fear of punishment, exposing serious shortcomings in
enforcement and governance.
While the number of MBBS seats has increased
significantly—from about 51,000 in 2014 to nearly 1.2 lakh today—the number of
aspirants appearing for the medical entrance examination has also risen
sharply, from around 11 lakh in 2017 to over 22 lakh this year. Consequently,
competition for admission remains intense despite the expansion in capacity.
Earlier, eligibility for appearing in the
medical entrance examination required candidates to secure a minimum of 50 per
cent marks in their Class XII board examinations. However, this criterion was
later relaxed, making a mere pass in the qualifying examination sufficient for
eligibility. Critics argue this change has diluted the importance of school education
and encouraged an excessive number of candidates to enter an already highly
competitive process.
There is a case for reconsidering the earlier
eligibility norms so that only academically prepared students are allowed to
take the exam. Some educationists suggest the qualifying benchmark could be
restored, or even raised to 60 per cent, in line with minimum standards
followed in many government and private sector recruitments. They contend that
when a large majority of students routinely score well above 60 per cent in
Class XII exams, there is little rationale for permitting every passing
candidate to appear for a highly specialised and demanding professional
entrance test. Such a measure, they argue, could help reduce the burden on the
exam system while reinforcing the importance of school-level academic
performance.
The Supreme Court has been petitioned seeking
restructuring or replacement of the NTA, which conducts the NEET. Even Artificial
Intelligence (AI) and GPS tracking have proved to be inadequate against
organised malpractice. Note, competitive exams exert immense psychological
pressure on students due to performance anxiety and other attendant factors and
sudden invalidation of the exam has forced lakhs of students back into that
cycle.
This apart, there is an economic cost as well
– the coaching centres that students flock to prepare for such tests often
charge a high fee. Worryingly, persistent disruptions have eroded confidence in
public institutions and deepened anxiety among candidates.
Insofar as the question of the paper leaks is
concerned, can the root be found in the coaching centres that take a lot of
money from students? Do they operate with or without the help of influential
politicians or their accomplices? Answers are critical.
This apart, it’s necessary to examine the mental
status of students when these exams are deferred. There are reports of students
crying uncontrollably, refusing meals, withdrawing socially and staying awake entire
nights. The mental agony of students who have prepared for the exam after
months of rigorous study needs to be understood and authorities must ensure to
spare them this ordeal.
To sum up, the government must maintain
strict monitoring and keep awatchful eye on the flourishing trade of coaching
centres, which are behind the paper leaks. The larger question which needs
attention is that unless governance in public institutions in the education
sector improve, this will have a negative effect on the student community,
specially those who aspire for higher education. At least till now, there have
not been any major allegations against the UPSC in recruiting IAS, IAAS, IPS
and other such officers and it is to be believed that only those who have merit
achieve the desired results. But it also needs to be pointed out that many
brilliant students from the lower echelons of society do not get a chance because
they cannot afford proper coaching.
Though the education minister announced a set
of reforms and a phased transition towards computer-based testing, there is
need to delve deep into the core weaknesses of the exam infrastructure. Undeniably,
India’s uneven digital infrastructure raises concerns regarding systems
failures, connectivity disruptions and unequal access for candidates from rural
and economically weaker backgrounds. Thus, to ensure not just free and fair
exams and whether NEET should run on the JEE template, it is necessary that
facilities are extended to the last student on the street, so that he/she is
able to come up in life and compete with his counterparts in metros and big cities.---INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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Pakora to Petrol Price Trap: INFLATION POLICY-MADE, By Shivaji Sarkar, 1 June 2026 |
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Economic Highlights
New Delhi, 1 June
2026
Pakora to Petrol Price Trap
INFLATION POLICY-MADE
By Shivaji Sarkar
Inflation in India is not merely the result
of global shocks; it is increasingly a product of high fuel taxes, cesses and
pricing policies that amplify costs across the economy. The country’s heavy
dependence on petroleum and gas—further entrenched by schemes such as
Ujjwala—has made energy prices the trigger for widespread inflation.
A simple Petroleum Ministry advisory in March
warning of tighter commercial LPG supplies was enough to push up the cost of
everything from the humble pakora to ice cream, paints and construction
materials. Pakora sellers say rising gas prices are compounded by costlier
edible oils, commodities and transport, creating a cascading inflationary
effect that touches almost every household and business. The pakora costs
40 percent more now.
India's headline retail inflation rose to
3.48 percent (provisional) in April 2026, driven largely by food and beverage
costs. Analysts, including those at ICRA, a Moody’s associate, expect headline
figures to harden slightly to around 4.1 percent for May due to rising input
and transport costs. It is rising now beyond Reserve Bank of India tolerance
limits.
If people were taxed less on petrol, they
would have eventually spent it on other goods, promoting economic growth and
government getting paid taxes anyway. That’s the common cry.The fuel policy
needs immediate review. But bio fuel ethanol that has high moisture (water) is
certainly not the solution.
In such a scenario, should not the country
have reduced petrol prices? It collected
Rs 39 lakh crore through high cess, additional excise duties etc “for funding
redemption of approximately of Rs 3.3 lakh crore petro-bonds of regimes since
2002”. There is supposed to be a reserve of Rs 36 lakh crore as the benefit of
crude falling below $40 a barrel (155 litre) was never passed on to the OMC.
From FY2016 to FY2022, Indian OMCs largely benefited
from deregulated fuel pricing, healthy refining margins, and relatively stable
crude prices, with profits peaking despite pandemic disruptions. In FY2023 they
suffered some losses. Profitability rebounded dramatically in FY2024 with
combined earnings of Rs 86,000 crore, moderated to Rs 33,602 crore in FY2025
due to LPG subsidies, and recovered to Rs 77,821 crore in FY2026, driven by
normal refining margins and gains from lower-cost crude inventories.
Despite collecting nearly ₹36 lakh crore
through fuel taxes and cesses, India has largely relied on market-linked fuel
pricing rather than using these revenues to help OMCs stabilize prices. As a
result, fuel prices remain higher and more volatile than in neighbouring
countries such as Bangladesh and Bhutan, where governments more actively
regulate or subsidize fuel to contain inflation.
Reliance Industries Limited (RIL), which
operates the world’s largest refining hub at Jamnagar and its associated
petroleum businesses, achieved an annual net profit of Rs 95,754 crore for the
financial year ending March 31 (FY26). This represents a 17.8 percent increase
year-on-year. The OMCs have to pay higher taxes. Reliance is exempted from some
taxes.
Greedflation, Profits Soar, Workers Lose
Petroleum prices alone are not hiking market
prices. Many sectors like education and health are victims of severe price
manipulations often called Greedflation.This refers to the practice of
companies using economic disruptions—. such as supply-chain bottlenecks,
inflation, or commodity price spikes—not merely to cover rising costs but to
expand profit margins by raising prices beyond what costs justify.
In India, the concept gained prominence
during the post-pandemic recovery as concerns grew that some firms were using
inflationary conditions to boost profits while consumers faced rising living
costs. The debate centres on whether price increases were driven by genuine
cost pressures or by growing corporate pricing power and opportunistic
profit-taking.
The correction is difficult for their clout.
Data from post-pandemic periods highlighted that the net profits of thousands
of listed Indian companies reached historic highs, often multiplying several
times over pre-pandemic averages.
Many have expanded profit margins. Many
companies have 22 to 45 percent hike in profits. More than half of the
increases in corporate profits are reportedly driven by fatter profit margins
rather than expanded sales volume.Unlike traditional cost-push inflation, where
rising labour costs drive up prices, the surge in corporate profits was largely
decoupled from wage growth. The wages stagnate or even compressed.
A growing number of economists in the U.S.
and Europe argue that recent inflation is increasingly “sellers’ inflation”
,manipulated by firms. The RBI needs to look at high prices charged by dominant
firms instead of focusing on higher repo rates only.Listed corporate net
profits has soared in 2025. Overall,there is strong evidence of expanding
corporate margins during inflationary cycles in India.
Education
Rising education cost is a quieter and more
consequential form of inflation, and not linked to petrol, that India is
overlooking. If the engine of India’s growth is its human capital, then the
rising cost of building that human capital is not just a household problem, it
is a macroeconomic one.
The Ministry of Education told Lok
Sabhaacross India, over 89,000 government schools were closed or merged over
the last decade, with UP (25,126) and Madhya (29,400) accounting for more than
60 percent of this total.This has hit families hard as primary education costs
zoom for greedy school managements. There are many more similar areas.
Multiple fuel
NITI Aayog advocates for a
technology-agnostic, “multiple fuel policy” to achieve energy security and
net-zero emissions, rejecting a strict EV-only approach. And certainly, the
ethanol-based bio-fuel with high water content is not the solution. It
drastically reduces petrol energy efficiency. Pure bioethanol has about 33 percent
less energy per unit of volume than pure petrol, says the U.S. Department of
Energy (DOE) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
The government must stop its use for more
than one reasons, including damages caused to the vehicles.India’s energy and
inflation control measures are flawed for many reasons.The overall energy
policy, its pricing mechanisms and tax structure require a comprehensive review
and reformulation. Short-term interventions may temporarily contain inflation,
but they often distort markets, shift costs between consumers, producers and
the government, and create uncertainty for investment and long-term planning.
A more durable approach would balance
consumer protection with transparent pricing, energy security, fiscal sustainability
and incentives for efficiency. Without structural reforms, India risks
recurring cycles of price shocks, subsidy burdens and uneven profitability
across the energy sector, undermining both economic stability and sustainable
growth.---INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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