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Economic Highlights
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US-Iran Agreement: LESSONS FOR INDIA, By Dr.D K Giri, 19 June 2026 |
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Round
The World
New Delhi, 19 June 2026
US-Iran Agreement
LESSONS FOR INDIA
By Dr.D K Giri
(Prof of Practice,
Institute of Management, Bhubaneswar)
The US-Iran peace deal has prompted analysts in
India to laud Iran and nudge New Delhi to learn a few lessons from Teheran.
Several suggestions are proffered to Ministry of External Affairs:how to stand
up to a bully like Donald Trump?How to negotiate with greater skill?How not to
bend under pressure and so on. I refuse to take any hint from Teheran as we are
at an opposite geopolitical location of Iran. I say this by discarding the
sentimental slogan of Vasudhaiva
Kutumbakam, or the unviable strategy of ‘multi-alignment in a multipolar
world’.
Iran taught the world how to
survive as America’s enemy. That’s not our exam. India’s exam is how to thrive
as America’s friend without dying of Kissinger’s fatal embrace. The answer is,
be Japan, not Pakistan; align interests, not flags.Kissinger’s famous
formulation was, “to be an enemy of US is dangerous, and to be a friend is
fatal.”Was he right? Was there any substance to it or was the statement an eyebrow-raiser?
Let us read deeply into what he meant: it was 1950s
context. US had a habit of using small allies for Cold War operations, then
dumping them. Vietnam, Kurds, Pakistan
post-2001. It’s fatal when US embraces you, fights wars through you, leaves
when bored.But does it apply to India 2026? It’s partly yes, mostly no;fatal
risk for small friends, not for the biggest country and world’s largest
democracy. US drags you into its wars. India is too big to be ordered about. No
US president can order Indian boots to Taiwan. We would say no.
The US deserts you when interests shift, partly
yes. If US-China cut G2 deal in 2030, where’s India? That’s a real risk. But
that too is unlikely as US treats China as strategic rival which seeks to
dislodge US from numero uno position
in world ranking of powers. US demands ideological conformity. No. US needs
India vs China more than it needs us to be liberal. Trump doesn’t care about
our democracy score.US hollows your industry. This risk is real. If we just buy
F-35s and don’t co-produce, we become Saudi Arabia with IITs.So, Kissinger’s
warning really was, “Don’t be dependent”. Not that “Don’t be a friend”.
The choice for us is Democracy vs Despots. US as
a democracy has 1000 entry points --Congress, states, universities, companies,
IndianAmericans. But Russia is simply a reflection of Putin’s mood and China of
Xi’s notebook. In US, you can lose in White House but win in Texas.
However, analysing Kissinger’s advice may be
obsolete for our discussion alas India has already moved to US Camp. The
question is, how should it locate itself?
On a reality check, we are in but not signed up. Call
it Camp, Quad, strategic convergence- names don’t matter, facts do. if we look
at the domains for India + US,Defence $20B+ deals, 2018-26: P-8I, MH-60R,
MQ-9B, GE-414 engine MoUs, BECA, COMCASA, LEMOA signed. With Russia, we
have S-400, K-203. But no new big-ticket since 2022. We face spares
crisis. Tech: ICET, semiconductor MoUs, AI
partnership, 300K Indian STEM students in US.With Russia, nil as it’s not in
tech game.
On China, joint
patrols, Malabar, Taiwan Strait statements.Russia is China’s junior partner. It
can’t help on LAC. Economy: US is number one export market $120B-FDI, GCCs,
Apple/Foxconn shift. With Russia trade is $65B but 90% is discounted oil. No
future growth.So yes, we are in US tent. But Delhi can’t say it because: (a).
Russia: 60% of Army/AF hardware still Sovietorigin. Need spares, oil; (b).
domestic politics: “Non-alignment” is civilizational comfort food; (c). China:
Declaring sidesmakes us the frontline state. Why volunteer for that?
How to “Locate” Ourselves: The Japan Model, Not
UK Poodle Model. Do not become treaty ally, no NATO, no US bases. That triggers
China+costs us autonomy. Do become “capable partner”. Japan template:
Security: US sells best kit, shares intel, but Japan owns its defence. No US
veto on foreign policy. Economy: US market access, but Japan protects its
firms. TPP, not dependency. Politics: Disagree in public when needed.
Japan opposed Iraq 2003, still closest Asian ally.
For India that means three moves: One, declare
“Strategic Autonomy with Alignment”: Say it straight: We’ll work with all, but
our security and prosperity are tied to democracies. Autonomy is choosing your
alignment, not avoiding all. Two, finish industrial decoupling from Russia:
AMCA, Tejas Mk2, Project-75I subs — every new platform must be Western/Indian.
Let Russia fade to spares + oil vendor. 10-year timeline. Three, give the US
a big win they can sell at home: Semiconductor fab with Intel/Micron + Indian
OSAT, or civil nuclear SMRs with Westinghouse. Trump 2.0 loves “jobs”. Give him
a ribboncutting.
Third: Is India seen as rival in Indo-Pacific? The
dilution of Quad could be due to Trump flip-flop or Delhi’s inept handling of
the platform. The short answer is 70% Delhi, 30% Trump.
Why the US gets nervous! One, trade: $45B
deficit. Trump sees India as “tariff king”. He doesn’t distinguish friend vs
rival, only “who’s ripping us off”. Two, Russian Oil: We bought $200B of
discounted crude 2022-26. US thinks: “You’re funding Putin’s war while wanting
our tech.” Three, Mixed Signals: We do Quad, then host Lavrov. We do ICET,
then stay silent on Ukraine UN votes. The US thinks: “Are you ally or free-rider?”
Trump’s flip-flop is real, but predictable. He
is transactional. Today he will call Modi “tremendous”, tomorrow tariff
Harley-Davidson. That’s not anti-India. That’s America First.
What can Delhi do to assuage, without groveling:
One, cut a visible trade deal: Take zero tariffs on 10 iconic US items —
Harley, bourbon, almonds etc. Its cost to India, $500M, PR value in Mar-a-Lago,
$10B.Two, explain Russia in US Terms, not “time-tested friend”. Say “legacy
dependence. We’re cutting it to 10% a year. Help us replace it.” Make US part
of solution. Three, be loudly Pro-US in Indo-Pacific, Not anti-China
statements, Pro-rule-of-law statements. Freedom of navigation, UNCLOS. When we
rescue Houthi-hit ships, put Pentagon + Delhi flags in same photo.Four, stop seeking
parity: US won’t treat India = UK. We are not treaty ally. Accept “major defence
partner” and milk it. Demanding NATO-level love makes us look insecure.
Bottom line: We’re not rivals. We are
“high-maintenance partner”; make ourselves low-maintenance, high-value. How to
avoid “fatal” embrace part. Three, rules for India: One, No Expeditionary Wars,
cooperate in IOR, not in SCS. “Our frontline is LAC, not Taiwan Strait”. Two, co-produce,
do not just buy, GE-414, say, 80% made in India or no deal. Micron: design here,
not just package. Fatal equals dependency and antidote to that is interdependence.
Three, keep Russia/France/Israel Lines Warm: Not
for love. For leverage. If US thinks we have no options, Kissinger comes true.
If Lockheed knows Dassault is waiting, we get better terms.
How can we advise India to secure alliance with US;
Shift from Russia, give up ambition of containing China. One, Secure US
Alliance: Yes. 100%. But call it“Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Plus”.
Accept US number one in defence, tech, education, capital. Keep a timeline:
2035. Method: ICET 2.0, 500K student exchanges, 50% defence kit from
US/partners. Two, shift from Russia: Yes, but glide path, not crash. Energy:
Keep oil till 2030, but no new long-term contracts. Defence: No new
Russian platforms. Use them for spares till 2040, then sunset. Diplomacy: Keep
BRICS, SCO seats, attend, don’t lead. Use them to tell Global South: “We are
not US poodle”; we are their bridge.
Three, give up ambition of containing China:
Reframe it. We cannot “contain” China. It is $19T, we are $5T. Thucydides
Trap is real, but we’re not Athens.But we must “Balance + Compete +
Cooperate”. Balance: In
IOR, with Quad. Make Chinese Navy think twice west of Malacca. Compete:
For supply chains, for Global South leadership, for tech standards. Cooperate:
Climate, pandemic, trade where possible. LAC quiet, both win.
So, advice to India:Do not try to be the US’s
Gurkha against China. Be the US’s Germany against USSR --big, democratic, rich,
armed, and pursuing own interest.”---INFA
(Copyright,
India News & Feature Alliance)
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The Iran War: SOUTHEAST ASIA HIT HARD, By Barbara Kratiuk, 18 June 2026 |
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Spotlight
New Delhi, 18 June 2026
The Iran War
SOUTHEAST ASIA
HIT HARD
By Barbara
Kratiuk
(Expert,
Centre For Intl Relations, Poland)
For Southeast Asia, which
consumes the lion’s share of oil and LNG flowing from the Persian Gulf, the
shock caused by the closure of Strait of Hormuz was almost immediate and
exceptionally severe. Apart from the parties to the conflict themselves, no
other region felt the impact of the blockade so acutely.
In 2024, 84% of crude
oil and 83% of LNG transported through the Strait was destined for Asian
markets; nearly all ASEAN nations are net energy importers with dangerously low
strategic reserves. Most members hold stocks sufficient for less than 30
days—with Philippines holding about 45 days’ worth and Thailand a nominal
106—figures that pale in comparison to Japan’s 254-day supply, South Korea’s
208 supply, and China’s 120 supply.
The economic damage
is extensive: fuel prices at pumps are rising at double-digit rates, budget
deficits are ballooning under weight of fuel subsidies, industrial supply
chains are collapsing, currencies are depreciating, and GDP forecasts are being
drastically downgraded. The political response was intense and varied,
revealing strategic capabilities—or lack thereof—of individual nations.
Impact on ASEAN
countries
The Philippines was
the hardest-hit economy in the bloc. Importing 98% of its oil from Middle East,
Manila was the quickest and most vocal in its response. Diesel prices hit 130
Philippine pesos per litre, while gasoline exceeded 100 pesos. President
Ferdinand Marcos Jr. became the first leader globally to declare a state of
energy emergency under Decree No. 110, launching the government’s “UPLIFT”
programme.Consequently, the IMF downgraded the Philippines’ 2026 economic growth
forecast from 5.6% to 4.1%—one of the sharpest revisions in Asia.
Vietnam is one of the
most structurally vulnerable nations in the region. Approximately 85% of its oil
imports originate in Middle East, with virtually all of it coming from a single
source: Kuwait. Pump prices rose by about 19% despite tax relief measures; fuel
queues and panic buying became a daily occurrence. MUFG Research warns if the
price of Brent crude remains around $120 per barrel, Vietnam’s GDP growth could
fall by over one percentage point—potentially dropping below 7%—and USD/VND
exchange rate could exceed 27,000. Hanoi has announced plans to source four
million barrels from suppliers outside Middle East, but this amounts to “just
six days of consumption.”
Despite being a producer,
Indonesia imports over a third of its oil. Its fuel subsidy budget for 2026—set
at IDR 381.3 trillion ($22.3 billion)—was based on an oil price of $70 per
barrel and an exchange rate of IDR 16,500. Both assumptions are now outdated.
Jakarta has introduced fuel purchase limits via the digital MyPertamina QR
system, capping consumption at 200 litres per vehicle per day while keeping
subsidised prices unchanged.
However, Malaysia, the
only net energy exporter in ASEAN, finds itself in a difficult position: 38% of
its oil flows through Strait of Malacca, and it imports refined products. Financial
cost of capping the price of RON95 gasoline at RM1.99 per litre is
immense—monthly subsidies surged from RM700 million before the crisis to RM7
billion in April, and the projected annual subsidy cost stands at RM58.4
billion, compared to the RM15 billion originally budgeted.
Thailand, a regional
refining hub, saw its Oil Fuel Fund swing from a surplus of 2.5 billion THB on
March 1 to a deficit of 62.4 billion THB by April 26—a shift of nearly 2
billion USD in just eight weeks. Singapore, where gas accounted for 93.1% of
the fuel mix in 2025, felt the impact quietly but severely.
Smaller economies
suffered too. In Laos, long queues for fuel formed in Vientiane; Myanmar
implemented an alternating-day driving system; Cambodia is almost entirely
dependent on imports from Thailand—supplies that Bangkok had restricted.
Varied Responses
The earliest, least
costly, and most visible policy response was to curb demand by altering work
patterns. The Philippines introduced a four-day workweek for government offices;
Indonesia allowed civil servants to work from home one day a week; Thailand
asked citizens to “ditch their jackets” to reduce reliance on air conditioning;
Vietnamurged employers to enable remote work wherever possible to reduce
transport demand; Malaysia cancelled government-sponsored Hari Raya open
houses, restricted official overseas travel, and discussed work-from-home; Myanmar
introduced alternating driving days.
The next step was
physical fuel rationing. Indonesia implemented 200-litre limit. Thailand imposed
ban on export of refined products, with some exceptions. It launched
investigations into alleged oil stockpiling in the southern part and resale to
neighbouring countries. In contrast, Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmarresorted to
rationing via queues.
Almost every ASEAN
government has resorted to extraordinary price interventionsand is paying a
heavy fiscal price. Vietnam has suspended environmental taxes and VAT on
gasoline and diesel and is drawing on its Fuel Stabilisation Fund, which holds only
15–30 days of reserves. Indonesia is operating with a subsidy budget based on oil
price over $30 below current market levels. Thailand’s Oil Fuel Fund has swung
from surplus to deep deficit. Subsidy costs in Malaysia are roughly 10 times
higher than pre-crisis levels, forcing government to eliminate subsidies for
higher-income earners—a measure every Malaysian government has discussed for a
decade but avoided implementing.
A long-delayed reform
The crisis has
exposed the most significant structural flaw in regional energy security:
near-total absence of substantial strategic oil reserves. The Philippines has
proposed increasing statutory oil stockpiles from 15 to 30 days and LPG
reserves from 7 to 21. Despite being a producer, Malaysia lacks formal
strategic reserves. Thailand, holding largest nominal reserves at 106 days, has
stocks sufficient for just 38 days. Vietnam’s reserves are estimated at less
than 20 days. Indonesia has launched energy projects worth IDR 116 trillion.
Shift towards Russia
The most
strategically significant moves have occurred on supply side and a shift
towards Russia. Indonesian President Prabowo undertook a4-country tour (Japan,
South Korea, Russia, and France) recently. In Japan, business agreements worth
USD23.6 billion were concluded; in Seoul bilateral relations turned into comprehensive
strategic partnership. Moscow visit resulted in long-term agreements for supply
of crude oil and LPG, with Russia proposing an “increase to Indonesian markets.”
Vietnam and Malaysia are considering importing Russian crude oil following
easing of US sanctions.
Malaysia took an even
riskier diplomatic step: Anwar established direct contact with Tehran, speaking
to President Masoud Pezeshkian for safe passage of seven tankers. Said he: “Malaysia’s
diplomatic relations with Iran are based not only on humanitarianism and
solidarity in face of Israeli attacks but also serve our country's energy
security.”Philippines too established direct contact with Tehran.
Joint Response
Coordination at bloc
level has long relied primarily on rhetoric, lacking operational solidarity.
For first time in over a decade, ASEAN is reactivating the long-dormant 2009
ASEAN Petroleum Security Agreement, promoting ASEAN Power Grid project, and
discussing joint procurement of oil from sources outside Middle East. Efforts
to achieve a 45% share of renewable energy in the region by 2030 are being
accelerated.
ASEAN’s hallmark
principles of non-interference and consensus-based decision-making hinder its ability
to respond effectively to crises. There is no equivalent to IEA’s collective stock-release
mechanism, no shared reserves, and no enforcement capabilities. Whether they seizethis
opportunity or simply patch up the damage and revert to dependency once the
Strait reopens will determine ASEAN’s energy security for a generation.---INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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Resilience In Energy: GOVT MUST EXPLORE OPTIONS, By Dhurjati Mukherjee, 17 June 2026 |
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Open Forum
New Delhi, 17 June 2026
Resilience
In Energy
GOVT MUST
EXPLORE OPTIONS
By
Dhurjati Mukherjee
At a time when energy
security has become a top priority for countries across the world, including
India, building long-term resilience against geopolitical risks requires a
fundamental shift in the composition of the energy sector. In India’s case,
there has been considerable neglect in the exploration and development of
domestic oil and gas resources. Equally significant has been the slow pace of
electrification and the inadequate expansion of clean-energy infrastructure
that could have reduced dependence on fossil fuels.
Although large-scale
solar and wind energy projects have been successfully implemented in states
such as Gujarat and Rajasthan, along with several others, investments in
transmission infrastructure have not kept pace with generation capacity. As a
result, many states continue to face transmission bottlenecks, limiting the
efficient distribution and utilisation of renewable energy. Addressing these
gaps will be crucial if India is to achieve greater energy security, accelerate
its transition to cleaner sources of power, and withstand future external
shocks.
A major milestone is
the very recent discovery of natural gas in the Andaman Sea by Oil India which
is expected to be a game-changer in reducing the country’s high reliance on
imported energy. It is understood that the well sits in 355 metres of water.
During production testing in the Eocene formation at a depth of 1900 metres,
continuous gas firing and pressure built-up were observed. Out of the three
wells drilled so far, two have successfully confirmed the presence of
hydrocarbons.
Meanwhile, Union
Petroleum Minister HardeepPurirecently stated as India imported 80 percent of
oil and 50 percent of gas, with the East Andaman Sea discovery, things are
destined to change. He further pointed out that India holds the potential of
‘several Guyana’s’ in the Andaman region and outlined several measures taken by
the government for exploration and production. Further he observed the country
was 3.5 million square kilometres of sedimentary basin but it never explored
beyond 8 percent area, keeping a large expanse of sea beds unexplored.
The other important
aspect is that of electrification of the transport sector. Electric cars, buses
and trucks are cheaper to run and greatly reduce pollution in cities and urban
areas. China is leading the world in electric cars and battery storage, yet, we
have rejected proposals from BYD, the world’s biggest electric auto producer
and second biggest battery producer, when it proposed a billion-dollar
investment. It is time for India to take steps in this direction to reduce
pollution.
Since 40 percent of
EV’s price comes down to its battery, lighter cars with smaller batteries are
the answer. A rapidly expanding public charging network can address range
anxiety. Battery-as-a-service or Naas, model in which you pay a monthly
subscription for the battery, also lowers initial price. But while India taxes
EVs at 5 percent, BaaS is taxed at 18 percent,and this must change.
The NitiAayog
recommended concentration on specific regions, say the metros, first. For
network effects this is a good idea because big cities need air quality improvements
urgently. Switching to electric cooking should be easier because equipment
costs are lower. And the energy savings are enormous because induction plates
and microwave ovens, for example, don’t waste fuel heating ambient air and
vessels.
As for biofuels when
the country is plagued by the West Asian crisis, experts call for need to shift
using the biofuel mission from food crops to produce ethanol to using crop
residue. Fertilisers, the main chemical urea for food crops, are mostly
imported. Thus, the solution lies in biofuels. Waste-based biofuels kill two
birds with one stone, --biorefinery – they produce fuel (ethanol) and can
replace imported chemical fertilisers (urea) with organic fertilisers at the
farm level.
It is encouraging to
note that the recent announcement of central excise exemption for petrol laced
with 20-30 percent ethanol follows recently announced standards for various
grades in this band. The tax exemption ought to facilitate higher levels
of ethanol blending. As per a study, the increase in ethanol blending by around
13-fold from 1.5 percent in 2014 to 20 percent in 2025 saved the government
around 1.06 trillion rupees in crude oil imports and avoided 54.4 million
tonnes of carbon emissions in a decade.
If India were to
meaningfully move away from food crops to crop residue like cane stubble and
bagasse, rice and wheat straw, corn cobs etc. it will have a multiplier effect.
Processing from residue nothing goes to waste as India generates around 500
million tonnes of agricultural residue every year, that could, as per
estimates, yield 40 litres of ethanol-equivalent. Biogas slurry –the waste
after producing biogas – is excellent organic fertiliser. This, in turn, will
help slash the government’s crippling fertiliser subsidy bill, estimated at a
staggering Rs 2.4 litres crore this year, and free farmers from imported
chemical fertilisers that kill soil nutrients. There is imperative need
to consider this aspect for greater gains in the long-term.
In the nuclear
sector, a milestone was achieved in April when a prototype fast-breeder reactor
(PFBR) at Kalpakkam attained criticality. Developed indigenously by
BharatiyaNabhikiyaVidyut Nigam (BHA-VINI), the 500 Mwe reactor marks India’s
formal entry into the second stage of its 3-stage nuclear programme. Apart from
this, a welcome development is the government’s decision to consider measures
that include assured power purchase agreements (PPAs) to attract private sector
investments in the nuclear sector.
As the country has
limited supply of uranium, the 3-state programme was conceived to enable
large-scale utilisation of thorium, which is abundant for power generation.
Meanwhile Bhabha Atomic Research Station (BARC) is understood to be developing
several advanced reactor designs, including 200 MWe Bharat Small Modular
Reactor (BSMT-200). 55SMeSMR-55and a high temperature gas-cooled reactor
intended for hydrogen production. In coming years nuclear energy may help the
cause of energy resilience and play a larger role in this sector. Experts are
of the view, and quite rightly, that the combined efforts of renewable energy
as well as nuclear programmes could help India’s huge energy requirement.
One may refer to a
study in November 2025 by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water
estimated that India’s green economy could attract $1 trillion investment and
create 48 million jobs. For energy security, scaling biofuels and renewable
powered mobility can displace crude oil imports, unlocking #3.6 trillion
opportunities. For food and materials, bioeconomy can harness India’s 700
million tonnes of biomass, the largest in the world, to reduce fertiliser
imports while the present findings of gas in the Andaman Sea augurs well for
the country. ---INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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Greed For Power: IDEOLOGY OF POLITICS, By Poonam I Kaushish, 16 June 2026 |
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Political Diary
New Delhi, June 16
2026
Greed
For Power
IDEOLOGY OF POLITICS
By Poonam I Kaushish
Nothing costs a nation more than a cheap
politician. This lexicon holds true in the political season of swapping lovers.
Whereby, it’s difficult to keep tabs on whose sleeping with whom, who’s jumping
into which bed, eloping with whom, tying the nuptial knot and divorcing whom.
Who’s in, who’s out, who’s entering which door and cutting which deals ---
sideways and under. Who’s cutting corners or double-crossing whom? Who’s
back-stabbing who, as friends and enemies are all rolled into one in this
constant eddy of defections. All, for Power.
An issue which haunts Mamata’s TMC which has
lost 20 MPs to ‘unknown’ Tripura regional outfit Nationalist Citizens Party
along-with 59 MLAs earlier. Ditto Kejriwal’s AAP who’s seven MPs crossed to BJP
as had Thackeray’s Shiv Sena and Pawar’s NCP to form a coalition Government in
Maharashtra.
Confided
a defected TMC leader, “With
BJP emerging as the dominant State and national
political force, we found ourselves under pressure from a large, more
resourceful opponent who could arm-twist us. So the challenge was no longer
merely about staying relevant but survival, hence we defected.”
Arguably, what is the purpose of a Party? To preserve its
identity, conserve ideology it was created to serve? Remain relevant in a steadily
shrinking political space? Massaging egos? Or is winning and being in power,
the be-all-and- end- all of politics?
Undoubtedly, when
power is the goal of politics, ideology has no leg to stand on. The reality of today’s
practical politics. Power is the means through which Parties implement
policies. Without power, ideology remains just a set of ideas. But when pursuit
of power becomes the overriding objective, ideology becomes secondary, flexible
or even disposable.
Obversely,
defenders of political pragmatism argue that ideological purity without power
accomplishes little. Compromises, alliances, and tactical shifts are necessary
to win elections and govern. Consequently, power matters.
Raising
a moot point: How much ideological compromise is acceptable in the pursuit of
power? What’s the relationship between MPs-MLAs and his constituents? Are they
just representatives or is there a deeper moral bond, now forgotten?
Think.
When leaders campaign they present a certain image of themselves, subscribing
to certain beliefs, promise to do certain things and commit themselves to
function within confines of loyalty to the Party they belong to. It is on this
basis they get votes. So when they defect is it not a breach of the terms on
which they sought a ticket and fought elections? Is it not a betrayal to their
Party and voter? Why did they choose to rebel when their Party was defeated?
Why not earlier? Would they have rebelled if the Party had won?
Underscoring,
individual
meanness, opportunism and a share of the power pie
is the glue that keeps all together. Indeed, power corrupts and absolute power
corrupts absolutely, morality be damned. Confided a leader, “Hum sab ek hi thaali ke chate-bate hain aur
is maryada ke hamam mein nagain hai!”
Succinctly,
these paper tigers who sell their political soul to the highest bidder in this
political nautanki are dubbed smart. Whereby,
every Party and its leaders have perfected the art of beguiling its hum zulfs and dushmans with aplomb, saddling us with opportunists and liars.
Exposing the disdain with which our netagan
holds democracy and voters.
Thereby,
exposing politics of the worst kind, cultivating low morality and high greed
--- and need of the hour. A power-play when personality-oriented malicious
vilification seems to have became the hallmark of democracy. Sans shared
ideology and mutual objectives. This pithily is aaj ki rajneeti.
Sadly,
our leaders credibility has hit rock bottom. The greed for power is
overpowering. Politicians invoke ideology while in Opposition but seem willing
to set it aside when power is at stake. That gap between rhetoric and behavior
is what leads to the conclusion that power is the real ideology of politics.
Said a
senior leader, “Ideology gains supporters and gets Parties elected; power keeps
us alive and allows us to implement anything at all. Without power, ideology
remains only a slogan. Hence, power becomes the sole goal.” Big deal, if
Parties eventually lose credibility and become indistinguishable from one
another.
Can
we merely shrug our shoulders and dismiss it as political kalyug? If one accepts the
premise that power politics has overshadowed ideology, then the way forward is
not necessarily to abandon politics, but to reconnect power with purpose Parties must define non-negotiable principles.
They can compromise on tactics, alliances, and policies, but there should be
core values that cannot be traded away.
A Party
ideally exists to advance a set of ideas, policies, and interests — not merely
to preserve its own organizational existence. In theory, the Party is a vehicle
for an ideology or a political vision. In practice, however, Parties often face
a tension between two goals: Preserving ideology and staying true to principles
on which Party was founded, even if that costs votes, power, or members. Or
preserving the organization – adapting, compromising or changing positions to
remain electorally viable and keep Party alive.
When
voters conclude that there is no limit to that compromise, trust in Parties and
politicians tends to decline. When Parties refuse all compromise, they may
remain principled but struggle to influence
policy. Democratic politics is often a constant balancing act between those two
extremes.
The
practical way forward is for Parties to decide whether it is primarily: a
movement built around an idea, a vehicle built around a leader or an electoral
machine focused on winning power. The more clearly a Party answers this, the
more likely it will survive periods of turmoil. Parties that know what they
stand for can lose leaders and still endure. Parties that stand only for power
often find it harder to retain loyalty once power begins to ebb.
However,
saying ideology is completely irrelevant may go too far. Ideology still
influences Indian politics in important ways: BJP has built much of its appeal
around nationalism, cultural identity and governance themes. CPM continue to be
guided by a distinct ideological framework even when electorally weak. Regional
parties often champion federalism, linguistic identity, or regional interests.
Voters themselves frequently make choices based on values, identity, and policy
preferences, not just patronage.
Certainly, a course
correction is possible. This depends whether voters, civil society groups,
courts and leaders demand it at the same time. Without sustained public
pressure, politics tends to drift toward what wins elections rather than what
best reflects ideology. Till such time, power is the operational
ideology of much of politics, regardless of what Parties claim publicly.
India today is at the
moral crossroads. In this game of lies, deceit and deception, BJP, Congress and
regional outfits reflect the emerging truth of today’s India. Power is all.
But, for voters it
raises a serious concern: If leaders can move across political lines with ease
while claiming a moral high ground, then what are we voting for? A belief
system? Or a moment in a larger negotiation of power? What ideology? What
principles? Or does the wind simply tells us which way to blow. What gives?
---- INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)
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Impact of War in Iran for Japan, By Beata Bochorodycz, 13 June 2026 |
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Spotlight
New Delhi, 13
June 2026
Impact
of War in Iran for Japan
By Beata
Bochorodycz
(Expert,
Centre For Intl Relations, Poland)
The war in Iran,
despite considerable geographical distance, is causing multidimensional effects
in Japan, not only economic issues, energy security and supply chains, but also
its foreign and defence policy and public debate.Japan, as a country strongly
dependent on the stability of Middle East, is closely monitoring the conflict,
but is also redefining its own strategic priorities.
The largest and
most direct consequence is the threat to its energy security. Japan is one of
the countries’ most dependent on energy imports in the world. About 95% of oil
and 11% of LNG imports come from Middle East. Although Iran is not a major
supplier, the stability of region, including Strait of Hormuz, is crucial for
Japanese economy, as most oil and gas flows through it. The closure of the
strait resulted in a 95% drop in oil flows and a 99% drop in LNG flows in the
two months since the conflict began. With a complete blockade and no
alternative supply routes, Japan’s strategic oil reserves will last for 254
days.
The increase in
oil prices translates into an increase in energy prices. According to World
Bank, energy prices may increase globally by 24% in 2026. Japan, as an economy
strongly integrated with global markets, feels the effects, especially in
energy-intensive sectors (chemistry, steel, transport). The increase in such prices
translated into higher production costs, transport prices, food and consumer
goods. The Bank of Japan, which had just started the process of stabilising
monetary policy, faced a difficult choice between fighting imported inflation
and supporting economic growth. The increase also had an impact on household
portfolios.
The government
has introduced subsidies to protect citizens from the rising cost of living and
is now considering extending subsidy from June-September, when people use it
the most. The cost of such actions is estimated at 500 billion yen. With a
prolonged conflict, continuing such support may become difficult given the very
high debt of the treasury. The country is additionally exposed to a high risk
due to the weakening yen.
Furthermore,
supply chains have been disrupted. Although Japan is not directly dependent on
Iran for industrial raw materials, global prices for metals and chemicals,
availability of petrochemical components, and stability of maritime transport
are affected. Japanese companies—particularly in automotive and electronics
sectors—are forced to increase inventories and diversify suppliers. Even under
the optimistic scenario outlined by the Nomura Research Institute, production
volumes are expected to continue falling and GDP to contract. As a net
importer, Japan has felt the impact sooner than most OECD nations.
On the other
hand, the war is accelerating diversification of energy sources. This has been
a topic of discussion since at least the oil crisis of 1970s, which first made its
people acutely aware of the consequences of relying on a single region. The
current conflict is also acting as a catalyst for “green transformation”
policies and investments in nuclear energy.
Tokyo has
stepped up efforts to increase the share of renewable energy, but, crucially,
and despite earlier public opposition, it’s accelerating the restart of nuclear
power plants (sometimes at the expense of renewables). The war has reminded
Japan its energy security is structurally dependent on a region that remains
one of the most unstable in the world.
Diplomatic
Consequences
The diplomatic
consequences are equally complex. It must be emphasised that for decades, Tokyo’s
Middle East policy is largely independent of Washington, characterised by a
balanced approach to engagement. It has traditionally acted as a mediator,
maintaining good relations with both Gulf states and Iran while avoiding taking
a definitive side in conflicts. This war has disrupted the balance. Deepening
polarisation has forced Tokyo to be more cautious in its choice of partners to
avoid facing economic or political repercussions.
Furthermore,
since this conflict, the US has intensified pressure on Japan, expecting
greater military and logistical support—particularly regarding protection of
maritime routes and stabilisation coalitions. While discussions and questions
have arisen in Japan concerning potential involvement in US operations, there
have been no government decisions or even declarations indicating any concessions
to Washington.
Notably, despite
US pressure, Sanae Takaichi’s government has not openly supported either US or
Israel. The Prime Minister’s response remains restrained, cautious, and devoid
of unequivocal statements. Takaichi reiterated the general stance on the need
to prevent nuclear proliferation. The government focused its efforts on
evacuating citizens and monitoring energy situation, demonstrating safety of
Japanese nationals in the region and stability of oil and LNG supplies.
Tokyo is also
avoiding any assessment of legality of bombing of Iran—unlike its response to
Russia’s 2022 attack on Ukraine, when it firmly and unequivocally condemned Moscow’s
actions as violation of international law. The current war has forced Tokyo to
strike an even more delicate balance between alliance solidarity and its own
energy interests.
Security
Consequences
The conflict is
also significantly influencing reforms in realm of security and defence policy.
It fits into a broader trend of global and regional threats—such as China’s
assertiveness, North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile programmes, and
Russian revisionism—that have for several years driven Japan’s defence reforms
toward the country’s “normalization,” entailing a revision of constitutional
military constraints and strengthening of its own military capabilities.
Takaichi is
fulfilling her campaign promises regarding security. Intensive work is underway
on both the constitutional revision and key strategic documents—including the
National Security Strategy—to be completed this December. There should be an
expansion of roles and mandates of Self-Defence Force units, particularly
Maritime Self-Defence Force (MSDF), regarding participation in international
operations, including protection of sea lanes.
Furthermore, the
premise that deterrence capabilities must be strengthened is being reaffirmed;
this entails continued development of counterstrike capabilities and
industrial-technological innovation in areas such as AI, cyber capabilities,
quantum systems, space infrastructure, and autonomous platforms, alongside
strengthened cooperation with Indo-Pacific partners.
The war diverts
US attention away from Asia, signalling to Tokyo it must expand cooperation
with other regional states—including Australia, South Korea, India, and ASEAN
nations—as well as foster trans-regional relationships, such as with NATO. The
conflict is thus acting as a catalyst for expanding Japan’s “strategic autonomy”
within the framework of Japan-US alliance, and for fostering intra-and
inter-regional security integration with “like-minded partners.” This
integration is not intended to exclude US, but to provide a safeguard against a
scenario where America might be unable or unwilling to support its Asian
allies.
Socio-Political
Consequences
The least
obvious consequences of the war are socio-political in nature—specifically, the
way the conflict shapes public debate and domestic policy. The war has
reignited discussions regarding Japan’s global role. Experiences from war in
Asia and Pacific, combined with constitutional constraints on Japan’s military
activities and combat capabilities, have fostered a strong pacifist identity
and an anti-militarist culture.
Japanese society,
traditionally skeptical of involvement in foreign conflicts, is once again
grappling with questions concerning the scope of alliance obligations, limits
on use of Self-Defence Forces, and Japan’s responsibility for international
peace and order. Since outbreak of war in Ukraine, calls for strategic military
autonomy vis-à-vis US, strengthening of domestic military capabilities, and
diversification of strategic partners are gaining momentum. The war is thus
influencing ongoing redefinition of Japanese pacifist identity and emerging as
a key test of Japan’s resilience and adaptability in an era of global
instability.---INFA
(Copyright,
India News & Feature Alliance)
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